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Arun Cavale/Male/26-30. Lives in India/Maharastra/Mumbai, speaks English and Hindi. My interests are Survival takes all my time.
This is my blogchalk:
India, Maharastra, Mumbai, English, Hindi, Arun Cavale, Male, 26-30, Survival takes all my time.


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Monday, June 27, 2005

Black Friday, the movie

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What a hard-hitting movie! Certainly, the most "non-movie-ish" movie in recent times..enough sting to give you a rude jolt and wake you up from your comfort zone..Powerful and realistic dialogues to transport you back into the trying times...the movie truly lands a sucker punch, whilst telling you the story of the Bombay blasts of 1993...it describes the plot-making behind the blasts, the strategising - both in Dubai and in Bombay - and the way this ghastly deed was enacted on Bombay's lifeline *shocking*. The characters we meet are compelling: the terrorists, the corrupt law enforcement agents who abetted the plot, the investigators who would stop at nothing, and above all, the people of Bombay of whose resilient spirit this movie is a celebration. Today, as terrorist attacks on Indian cities become more frequent, this heroism is something we might all be called upon to emulate.

You can read a synopsis of the story here.

For those who cannot wait for the movie's release - the movie is based on the book by S Hussain Zaidi, "Black Friday: The True Story of the Bombay Bomb Blasts"

It is sad - and a telling commentary on India's Judicial system - that even after 12 years, conviction (and justice) is nowhere in sight. The movie release has been held up on the basis of a complaint from one of the accused.



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Thursday, June 23, 2005

41 Years Later, Ex-Klansman Gets 60 Years in Civil Rights Deaths

"Edgar Ray Killen, an 80-year-old former Klansman in a wheelchair, was sentenced Thursday to 60 years in prison for his role in the deaths of three civil rights workers in 1964".

This makes the headlines in today's The New York Times.

For the families of victims that Edgar Ray killed, it's sweet justice. For the Judicial system, it is a proud moment. Everything about this ruling seems to make sense. You kill a man - 3 men in this case - you pay for it. Simple. Or is it?

I welcome this ruling completely. I subscribe to the idea that the law of the land MUST be upheld - each time and every time, unfailingly & unflinchingly. But something about this case also sets me thinking - can we apply the above idiom of justice in each case, ie. go by the rule book consistently forever? Do we acknowledge the fact that the rule book itself - or its interpretation by the Jury system of justice - can change over time? Consider the below extract from the article,

"Prosecutors said that a sheriff's deputy pulled over the three men on June 21, 1964, and jailed them long enough for Mr. Killen to organize a death trap. Jurors said they rejected murder charges because the evidence, much of it transcripts of testimony from a 1967 federal trial, did not prove that Mr. Killen knew that the men would be killed.

In 1967 the federal government tried 18 men for conspiring to deprive the victims of their civil rights. Seven were convicted; none served more than six years in prison. That jury deadlocked 11 to one in favor of convicting Mr. Killen; the holdout said she could not convict a preacher. The state had not brought charges in the deaths until Mr. Killen was prosecuted this year".


This crime was committed in 1964 - 41 years ago. You will note that the '60s in America was a time when public opinion was divided between "For Civil rights / liberty" and "For discrimination against african americans"..Crimes such as the one described above were not isolated instances, but were related to a larger trend (am NOT justifying the trend, neither am i saying it was right). Times have changed in these 41 years. If such an incident were to occur today, it would certainly make more noise and shock more people than when it did 41 years ago. What this means is that the public - and the Jury that is, but, a subset of the larger public - reaction to such crimes would certainly be different in 2005 than what it was in 1964. Values can change; Ideas of "right" and "wrong" can change in 41 years. Can you apply today's values to yesteryear's crimes? Here's an example from the above extract itself: The Jury of 1967 trial didn't convict this man, whereas today's Jury did! This despite the fact that in 1967, the jury had access to more evidence and witnesses than what today's jury did! And there have NOT been any new evidence that has come up in these 41 years that gave the current jury fresh ammunition to go by, that the earlier jury didn't have. It appears that it's a case of changing societal values that came into play in influencing the current jury decision.

This begs the question: Can we reopen old cases and try them against today's sense of morality and ethos? Pardon my exaggeration, but allow me to illustrate this conundrum. In the 1930's - '40s, as part of the Indian freedom struggle, several Indian freedom fighters went on strike against the government of the day (British) refusing to co-operate (Non co-operation movement). We hail them as great heroes (deservedly so). But such acts are considered to be evil, non-progressive and subversive activities today. So do we repaint the acts of freedom movement against today's canvas? Sounds silly, I agree. But isn't that what has happened in the above case?

Each act - good or bad - needs to be evaluated against the ethos and values of that day and age, taking into consideration the prevailing circumstances that make for the order of the day; Shifting lenses of time to view earlier acts is dangerous and neverending.



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Tuesday, June 21, 2005

The mess called Bangalore

Bangalore has been called as "The Garden City" in the past, and more recently, it has earned the grand sobriquet of "The Silicon City of India". While am not going to comment on either, i think it should more aptly be called "The most apathetic city in India". Please do not get me wrong - especially all ye faithful Bangaloreans - am a true blue Bangalorean myself, having grown up in this once wonderful city. But instead of beating our chests and taking offense at anything negative said about our city, let's be honest. Let's just look around us - the chaotic roads, complete lack of urban infrastructure, City police who can't decide whether they are more ineffective or insensitive, utter lack of civic sense, complete disregard to basic discipline and an even more shocking lack of a willingness to change any of it. Is this what we are so proud of?

First rains, and the already hopeless and "just-can't-get-any-worse" traffic situation still manages to beat itself by turning even worse. Not only is one expected to look out for idiots driving contraptions called Auto Rickshaws and their big bully cousins driving City Buses, but one is also expected to stay clear of live wires dangling dangerously, fallen trees, and of course the potholes that seem to seamlessly extend from one to another. And all this in complete darkness, since the Electricity board seems to say "Let there be darkness" with the same alacrity as God saying "Let there be light".

Driving in bangalore traffic is just as pleasurable as getting squeezed between 300 sumo wrestlers. If you are driving in Bangalore, you are doing all of these:

1. Anticipating the mood of the vehicle in front, so that you don't bang into his back.
2. Anticipate the mood of the vehicle behind you, so that he doesn't bang into you.
3. Anticipate the mood of the 2-wheelers alongside you, so that they don't catch you unawares when they pull a "XXX" type stunt on you.
4. Anticipate the mood of the herd of people who might just decide to surprise you by suddenly crossing your path in the middle of the road.
5. Carefully plot the locations of bus stops which are in any case always at the corners of turns or start of half-constructed flyovers.
6. Show a fist while screaming obscenities at the many Indicas & Sumos that ply the call-centre employees.

Of course, you sare expected to do all of these at the same time. Clearly, this requires a tremendous amount of driving skills. Unfortunately, the good folks at the RTO(Regional Transport Office) who issue driving licenses to potential assassins don't seem to think so.

And then there's the infamous cowboy of "namma bengaluru" - the Bangalore City Police. First cloud, and the desi Marlboro man is the first to disappear. But not before he carefully switches OFF all the traffic signal lights! His ineffectiveness is of course so legendary that I am told he is in great demand to train his counterpart in Bihar. But what he certainly cannot train anybody on, is his extraordinary insensitivity. You really need to soak in the bangalore environment to become a zen master of insensitivity. Here's some real life examples:

A week ago, at one of the traffic junctions, one stupid Auto driver crashed into my brother's car (Maruti Zen) and simply took-off without even as much as looking back (You expected an apology, huh?). But not before he took with him the car's bumper and grill. Of course, like most law-abiding persons do, my bro noted down the Auto rickshaw's registration number, and went to the cops with it. The cop asked him to return the next day, since he was nearing the end of his duty and didnt want any "trouble". Of course, with the car being what it was, my bro got the bumper and grill fixed - cost quite a bit naturally. Then the next day, when he went back to the cops, the cops reprimanded him for having his car fixed ("You look like an educated person, is this what you do? You people should be blamed first") and asked him to go back and get the car back to its damaged state before they can do anything about it!! Not to end there, they said the car will then have to be left at the police station for 3 days, during which time, of course, nobody was responsible if anything happened to the car (like geting stolen, for instance). Of course, my bro had to grumble, and then shut up and come back wiser.

Today morning, one jerk on a 2-wheeler crashed into my car from behind. And without as much as an apology, he just took off. The car is damaged and am sure is gonna cost me a few grands to get it repaired. But do you expect me to go to the cops? You know the answer.

This begs the question: Whose side are these cops on? Certainly not the victim, it appears.

Then again, take public activism. or the utter lack of it in Bangalore. A city can only be as good as the strength of it's public activism. You don't need to look further than Mumbai to see how an effective and vocal public can make a difference. Recently, a girl was molested by a police constable in Mumbai. You have heard about it. You have also heard and seen on TV, the kind of public protests that followed it.
Now around the same time, 3 such instances happened in Bangalore. Did anything happen? Not more than a passing mention in one of the inside pages of a newspaper.

And you still think you should be proud of Bangalore?



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Monday, June 20, 2005

Rape in China: A 3-Month-Long Nightmare for 26 Schoolgirls

"The teacher always sent a girl to buy his cigarettes. He left the class unsupervised and waited in his office. When the girl returned to class with flushed cheeks and tousled hair, the other students said nothing".

"For nearly three months the teacher, Li Guang, raped 26 fourth- and fifth-grade girls in this rural village, parents and court officials say. Some girls were raped more than once as Mr. Li attacked them in a daily rotation. He was found out when a 14year-old refused to go to school for fear that the next morning would be her "turn." She did not want to be raped a third time".


This got reported in The New York Times today.

What do i say to this? Shocking? Apalling? or plain surprised - that this news ever came out?? The rapid force of modernisation in China has brought with it all kinds of complexities - chief amongst which is the breakdown of traditional societal models and support structures. Yet, even as the conventions of Chinese society are being shaken by the tumult of modernization, the Confucian reverence of teachers remains strong, particularly in isolated areas like this farming village in Gansu Province in western China. Parents grant teachers carte blanche, some even condoning beatings, while students are trained to honor and obey teachers, never challenge them. No wonder this carnage from a pathetically demented man went unnoticed for so long - and would have continued if not for that one poor brave girl.

I would not be surprised if hundreds of such incidents are happening in China - only one of which - somehow, accidentally - got reported in China's tightly controlled and censored media environment. In a society which believes teachers can do no harm, the responsibility of media becomes paramount. It becomes the media's job to go out there and highlight these issues and bring them into the open. Sadly, that's not what the central machinery wants.



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Happy Birthday Gal!

Happy birthday, dear sis-in-law!! As you grow one more year older, there's no denying u r old!:-) But then, u'll always be the youngest one in the family and that's not going to change anytime; And as the youngest old kid, you shall continue to get from us lotsa attention, lotsa affection, and a little bit of painful interference too!

God bless, and all the best in ur videsi venture!



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Sunday, June 19, 2005

Abhijit Sawant and his orchestra

Did you watch "India Session - Abhijit Sawant and his friends" on MTV last evening? Lucky if you didn't. I did. And that gave rise to this post.

Well, when I say I did, I meant I watched portions of it. Of course, I just couldn't bear to hear "Aapka Abhijit" sing his entire "classics". It was amazing to see him choose the best of the good ol' hindi numbers. It says a lot about his refined taste in music. But sadly, i cannot say the same about his singing tho'. He sang so bad that it looked like he would drive away the thick monsoon clouds from the Bangalore skies to a safe distance. To maybe Somalia where MTV is not broadcast, and where rain is really needed. It actually did drive away the clouds & rain from Bangalore - awaiting confirmation from Somalia whether it managed to reach them however.

Aapka Abhijit went on murdering song after song after song - he could most certainly put Jack, the ripper, to shame. After watching "Sur" (movie) in the afternoon, it was like watching "Be-sur" in the evening! This guy, i believe, was a singer in one of the orchestras in Mumbai. The guys who sing in Ganesh mandals. It really shows. He should go back to it and spare us. Not that am against people who sing in orchestras, just that i haven't heard of any Kishore Kumar / Lata who came out of any orchestra, you know. The least i expect from a guy who comes through from a field of thousands of aspirants to emerge as the "Indian Idol" is that he has some decent singing potential. Not kill numbers which are classics lodged in our collective memory. Would it remain so after Abhijit Sawant has had a go at them?



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Thursday, June 16, 2005

Cabinet nod for dual citizenship

The Union Cabinet on Thursday gave its approval for amending the Citizenship Act 1955 to enable all persons of Indian origin who migrated to other countries after January 26, 1950 to acquire overseas citizenship of India.

The cabinet meeting, chaired by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, also gave its approval to amend the Allocation of Business Rules and to allow Ministry of Overseas Indian Affairs to issue notifications under Section 7B (1) of the Citizenship Act and issue smart cards to registered Overseas Citizens of India.

However, the amendment would not be applicable to all persons of Indian origin, their children and grand children, who migrated to Pakistan and Bangladesh after January 26, 1950.

It will benefit people who were eligible to become citizens on this date or belonged to the territories, which became part of India after August 15, 1947 to acquire overseas citizenship "as long as their home countries allow dual citizenship in some form or the other".

These were among the various proposals approved by the cabinet, Information and Broadcasting Minister Jaipal Reddy told reporters after the meeting.


AC: So do we expect the next Prime Minister / President who is a foreigner, yet not foreigner?? The news article does not specify if there will be any distinction in the rights that get conferred on such "dual" citizens..For example, will such people be allowed to vote? Will they be able to contest elections?? More importantly, if the answers to the first two are "yes", then can we - who are not "dual" citizens - expect them to bring about the right kind of understanding about India and her ground realities to be able to truly represent the people? Or would this amount to - now am treading exaggerated ground here - outsourcing of governance to across the border?

Questions and more questions! But, to my mind - not that i claim to know a great deal about this matter - it appears to be an exercise that is aimed at gratifying (red carpet to rashtrapati bhavan?) the NRI / PIO populace, with no real need or rationale for doing so.

I think a better alternative of integrating the Indian diaspora - the real objective i think - would be to strengthen the concept of PIO (apart from simply labelling it as so and issuing PIO cards), giving them certain privileges while at the same time making a clear distinction between PIOs and normal citizens of this great country. You see, there's also a matter of paying tax, which I as a normal "Single" citizen do!
What do you think?



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Wednesday, June 15, 2005

Smoking banned in movies.....

...but allowed in real life!

This stinks of hypocracy all the way from New Delhi to Bangalore (where I am)...You are allowed to smoke in real life, while guzzling on Beer/Whisky or whatever is your preferred poison, but you are NOT supposed to show smoking in movies, or advertise alcohol on TV. The explanation, presumably, is that you cannot allow media to promote these evils. Well intentioned, Maybe. Stupid, Yes. Double-standards, Most certainly!

Why not simply ban the production and sale of Cigarettes and Alocohol?

Of course, the govt will not do that, considering that it derives huge revenues from the cigarettes & liquor manufacturers as Excise duty and Sales tax. In fact, in some of the states, these two sectors account for the highest revenue from excise duty. Not to mention, the large amounts that grease the palms of many political big wigs. Therefore, the govt can not & will not even think of banning them. But then what's a govt that doesnt want to get reelected? And how can it get reelected without showing that they care, and are the moral guardians of the society? So, they go banning advertising of these products.

I believe that any product thats gets manufactured & sold, has a right to get advertised. That's quite fundamental, right? The above action of the govt seems to remind me of one of the popular lines of "Loin" Ajit: "Isko Liquid Oxygen mein dhal do. Liquid isse jeene nahin dega, aur oxygen isse marne nahin dega" ("Throw this fellow in Liquid Oxygen; Liquid will not let him live, and Oxygen will not let him die")



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Titbit from a not-so-distant memory

What do you say to a headstrong lady Professor who gives you a solid "A" in all her subjects, even after you tell her - on her face and in front of the entire class - "Your class is an insult to my intelligence, as well as my common sense", and then walk out of her class never to attend any again?



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Tuesday, June 14, 2005

Birth of another Spiderman?

Spider bites man in supermarket

"..a 65-year-old man has been treated in hospital after being bitten by a venomous spider as he reached for a bunch of bananas at a supermarket..."


So do we see the advent of a 65 year old Spiderman? Jokes aside, it is quite shocking to see the response from Sainsbury, which is where it happened. Here's what Sainsbury had to say:

In a statement, Sainsbury's said they take "all possible precautions to prevent events such as this from happening". Yeah, right!

"We sell millions of bananas every week and it is an extremely rare occurrence." Tell that to the poor old man who faced this "rare occurrence".

"The customer has not been harmed from the bite, and we believe he is now fine". Of course, the old man was just faking it, or maybe trying to morph into Spiderman.

"We arranged for his shopping to be dropped at home after the incident, and are extremely sorry that this may have caused him distress." Wow! How considerate I say!!

The entire statement from Sainsbury seems to be directed at washing its hands off the incident. First they say they take all possible measures, and hence if something like this does happen, its your bad luck. And then, they go on to underplay the incident, and claim the old man was indeed alright, nothing happened - so what if he had to be hospitalised for 17 hours, he was simply faking it.



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A non-finance person's view of IPO evaluation

The last few months have seen an increased activity in the IPO markets with many IPOs hitting the market (including several mid-cap MFs); and in the last couple of days, the mercury levels have really shot up, what with Provogue coming out with its IPO. As it usually happens, renewed activity in the capital markets only act as a boost of viagra for the old men who call themselves analysts. Predictably, you must have been forced to read atleast one analyst's take on how good or bad the provogue IPO really is.

And to support their views, naturally, all kinds of numbers are thrown at you (EPS, PE multiple, DE ratio etc etc). Numbers which, to financial ignoramuses like you and I, look more out of algebra text books that we left behind in high school.

This isn't one more "analyst's" analysis. As i said earlier, am no warren buffet. This isn't even a pitch to promote Provogue - Provogue is just an example I am using to explain my point. The purpose of this post is to help you look beyond plain financial numbers, and understand the worth of an IPO from a retail investor's POV.

Here's what one analyst wrote about Provogue IPO:
"...a price band of 130 to 150 against an EPS of 6.67 looks pretty expensive..."

From a pure finance angle, yes, he's right. But he's wrong. And possibly myopic.

EPS = Earnings (ie. Net Profit) / No. of Shares.

This ratio is expected to be high, to be considered as good. In other words, you earn more for every share you own. right? simple. So far so good.

But the problem with using EPS as the sole measure to value an IPO (or a firm) becomes apparent when you realise that EPS is a backward looking measure - it tells you how good or bad the firm has performed in the past. It doesn't tell you how it will perform in the future!

One of the most important deficiencies in using EPS as a sole measure is the fact that the brand value gets discounted. Let me explain this. Suppose the brand 'Provogue' were to be sold, how much would it earn?. Let us divide this number (Brand Value) by the no. of shares..For a powerful brand like Provogue, this ratio (Brand value per share) would be far higher than its EPS...this difference is really the Brand premium, which most financial analysts conveniently ignore.

"How is this capital utilized?" - very few analysts would ask this paramount question. The fresh capital from the IPO can be used in either of the 2 ways:

(a)to build capacity - in other words ploughed back into the business so that business can grow, Or

(b)to bail out the promoters stake from the business - in other words, the promoters can chose to sell their stake, take their money and wash their hands off the business.

Interestingly, using EPS would not differentiate between the two! Neither do most analysts. Sadly.

Disclaimer: This post is only meant to present the author's views on the general topic of assessing IPOs without making any specific reference to Provogue or any other IPO; the author shall not be held responsible for any loss caused to any person whatsoever who accesses or uses or is supplied with the content (consisting of articles and information). Readers are advised to cross-verify the information and to also seek professional and expert advice before taking any decision based on the content provided above or acting on any recommendations made herein. The information or opinions provided herein are not a substitute for professional advice.



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Monday, June 13, 2005

RFID tags for prisoners coming to Asia

Anywhere you go in Tokyo, Seoul or Singapore, the proliferation of personal technology is hard to miss.

And now convicts in these countries won't feel left out. NEC has signed a letter of intent to resell RFID identification and tracking system for prisons from Alanco in Asia. The agreement is non-exclusive in Japan but exclusive in other, unidentified, Asian markets. A definitive agreement, worth several million, will be signed in the next thirty days, said Alanco.

With the Alanco system, prisoners, or "uncooperative users" in Alanco parlance, wear RFID bracelets surrounded by a multitude of readers. As a result, their movements can be tracked. In U.S. prisons where it's been installed, Alanco TSI Prism system has reduced inmate violence. What Yakuza member could object?

"Inmates know they are being monitored and know they will get caught. The word spreads very quickly," said Alanco exec Greg Oester last year.

AC: More on RFID, and how it is going to change our lives,er i mean our prisoner's lives..Can you imagine this happening in Tihar Jail or one of those hard core jails in Bihar? I say, why limit this to only jails, why not have it in all of Bihar? It's the same ain't it?

How about embedding these RFID chips in captured militants and then when our distinguished Govt sets them free (ala Kandahar), you will atleast be able to prove their cross-border connection???



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GPS-enabled school uniforms hit Japan

With GPS-enabled school uniforms on the way in Japan, the timeless parental refrain "don't forget your jacket" is about to assume new significance.

According to gizmo hub Engadget, the jackets, in addition to letting parents track their kids, sport a panic button that children can push in an emergency, immediately summoning a security agent to their exact location. The GPS-enabled blazers are made by school uniform maker Ogo-Sangyo, with GPS technology provided by Secom, which previously teamed up on a kids' backpack with built-in GPS.

RFID tags have been used to track kids in Japan before, and they've been considered elsewhere, including the United States.

But the notion of electronic IDs in schools has proven more than a little controversial, with some calling them a cutting-edge way to monitor attendance and keep kids safe and others assailing them as an assault on the youngsters' right to privacy.

The student tags employ the same technology used in building access badges commonly issued to employees for security purposes.

Drivers who sign up for quick-pay toll programs use similar devices to cruise by toll booths. And RFID technology has recently been found in chain stories, libraries and casinos.


AC: What this means? Imagine the possibilities!
1. You can NOT bunk classes without getting fired for it
2. No more 'proxy' attendance! (Boy, are we glad this technology didn't exist when we were in college)
3. More problems for the dilettante casanovas from DPS, RK Puram; And parents, no need to wait for the infamous MMS to know what "they" did last summer!
4. Guys, no more two-timing your ugly girl friends.

And naturally, this had to come out of Japan "wonly"!



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